Stock Tiger

2007-03-10T15:32:00.001-05:00

Stock Tiger Stalking Stocks™

For Monday March 12, 2007

Dow +15.62 at
12276.32, Nasdaq -0.18 at 2387.55, S&P
+0.96 at 1402.85

In December 1996 Alan Greenspan gave his "Irrational exuberance"
speech and little did he know that it had only begun as the Nasdaq
at that time was only at 1300. He did nothing but watch the bubble
grow and then pop. No regulation on margin etc. This time in the
last few years it was the housing market and now again nothing was
done so it seems that bubble popped though we will know more in a
few years. Since December at least 30 sub prime lenders have gone out of
business and maybe they should not have been allowed in the first
place to suck in buyers who now cannot pay their higher monthly
costs. (notice how I used suck just like the CEO of the home builder
D. R. Horton) I have read that with the new regulations as many as 10-20% of
buyers will now not quality for mortgages so that is of course
expected to cause a long term slow down in housing.

But with such a backdrop the markets still manage to hold up
quite well and all major indexes closed up for the week. The news is
not so important it seem as what is more important and that is - if people want to own stocks or not. We could
pretty well make a decent case why the Dow could move up or down a
few thousand points but with the vast amount of money in the world it
has to go somewhere and if it goes into US stocks the prices will go
up and if it goes somewhere else they won't. We use the charts to
try and pick low risk entries in the direction that the money is gong
today and even with the current pullback we are still in a bull
market.

Here is how the main indexes did for the week.

The market is however more sensitive to other situations when it
is nervous. Here is
the chart of the Japanese Yen in US$. Last May when the Dow dropped
(lower part of chart) the Yen had just shot up but actually this was
slow in correlation. The Yen had another spike in December but the market
seemed not to worry about it. This time however this correlated with
the recent market decline. Hedge funds and others had borrowed money
from the low interest Japan to buy higher interests notes and
equities in the USA or other places (carry trade). Maybe on this run
some got nervous so
sold some of their holdings to pay back the borrowed money but with
Japanese rates at about $0.5% and US at about 5% or Australia at 7%
why care if the Yen moves up a tiny bit? They call
this process "unwinding" and with the Yen/US$ falling back it helped
relieve some worries but also stopped the selling that was being
done for that reason. I do not know how big a market mover this may
be be if the Yen does actually breaks its downtrend and heads up but
there is for sure much written about it and doing a Google "carry
trade" search would supply plenty of reading material.

On Friday the markets ran up early on a job report that showed
that February nonfarm payrolls rose 97,000,
which was better than expected. Payrolls for
the prior two months were upwardly revised to account for an
additional 55,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate unexpectedly
fell to 4.5%, near a five-year low so no signs of
recession and no increase in economic slowdown.

Here are the sectors that gained or lost the most for the week.
Ouch the winning forestry sector that was on top last week is now on
the bottom.

The Dow chart shows the
general bounce near the 38% retrace and 200-day EMA but it did not
touch those but was only close and many would feel much better if it
can successfully retest that area. It is now near resistance but a
break above the shadow tops in green could take it to the 50-day EMA
just under the center Bollinger band where there must be a ton of
short sell orders waiting. I am one of those that would like to see
a retest as I also would be very curious to see the RSI and
stochastics. They both gave buy signals as they crossed up above
their lower lines and it is rare that they would both then soon go
back under these lines. Stochastics has in the past but not both. So
it seems on the daily chart a trade would be to go long at 12353 for a possible
move to 12430 or a short under what may now be a break of the bear
flag (not drawn on chart).

The weekly Dow chart
shows how it bounced where everyone was watching to get in but the
stochastics on this weekly are still going down as is MACD. A few
more weeks and a dip under 20 could make for a good summer rally.
Historically this week generally ends higher and it is options
expiration week and the "max pain" on the Qs and S&P is above the
current prices.

The transports rallied from the
first trend line to the 50-day EMA but on lower volume. A drop to
the lower trend and 200-day may be greeted with more enthusiastic
buying should the drop happen.

You can see that many times in
the last few years this Pro Funds Ultra Short Small-cap
looked like it may become a good long term play but it always failed
at the 65-week EMA. Now days there are real time ETFs so this fund
would not be the best to use as you can place your order only one
time a day but it is good to refer to as it has
a real past history. The stochastics are still going up so if they
reach to 80 level and drop back we could have a renewed small cap
rally.

The Dow Jones World Stock
Index also after having reversed above the 38% retrace has now
almost made it to the underside of the 50-day EMA - resistance. This
also would be a better chart if it can fall again and do some
backing and filling.

The Nasdaq also bounced at the
50-day area and the trend line on the weekly chart with still falling
stochastics so not impressively bullish.

While the top 100 market cap
stocks from the Nasdaq (weekly chart) are about in mid channel so
they
also may find another drop ahead as stochastics are under 50.

The semiconductors have been
holding up very well n the pullback and have yet to break the
support. That is pretty impressive.

An the other view using the
SMH shows the range.

We show a lot of charts and
looking at a lot over a long time is a way to be better at seeing
things that can help your trading. Not all charts have direct use
but add to the overall picture.

The S&P 500 looks quite
weak here as the volume has fallen off on the rally. The resistance
overhead is at the 50-day EMA.

Actually the NYSE
does not look so different from the SPX in the short term.

The percent of stocks in the NYSE trading over
their 50-day EMA dropped a lot down to 26% from over 80%. It is now
at 45% and we could expect another drop as it is the most common
route as the
chart shows.

The Russell 2000 similar to others
however it did touch its 200-day EMA. This may be its low for this
correction but still needs a test the low even if it is higher higher. The stochastics
and RSI have been correct on the other calls in the past year.

But ---- on the weekly chart the stochastics
still falling so that is quite cautionary. (There are two sets of
Fibonacci on this chart. The blue ones are from the actual recent
high and the gray are projections I made)

Last Summer and Autumn we were looking for the 4-year cycle low to
come and did not want to count the June/July low as it would be too
early but now it looks like that was indeed the low.

The CRB commodities index ran into the 38% level and could
not break above. No real comments on it now but it seems to be
making a good consolidation.

Gold dropped again to the
50% line that is not a usual placement of the lines but one that we
have been using since June on this chart. Stochastics again moved
above the 20 mark. Gold may need the US dollar to fall in order to
stage a good rally but the US$ may rally itself.

Silver did manage to drop only briefly to the lower channel
and near the 200-day

The weekly economic calendar from briefing com.
I suppose the CPI and PPI may be the ones that could
move the market the most this week.

We have many new subscribers
each week and they do not all see the home page. So a reminder that
on the home page we have a video of the new watch list socks and
some others that seem they may be ready to move. For all the current
watch list go to the

Current page.

Uranium has been very hot - almost
radioactive over the past 4-5 months so I though tit may be of
interest to show 6 that have done well. These are not "picks" or on
the watch list at the moment but ones you may want to know about if
Uranium continues. A few are near possible break outs again.

URRE is very popular and maybe the most
heard about low priced one that had a nice run lately.

URST went to touch its trend line intra day and it seems the
50-day EMA has been giving support after a high volume run up and
light volume pullback.

BAY on the Vancouver
exchange in a channel.

Great symbol -- U
on the Toronto exchange near a break out point at $14.90. Moves
slowly it seems but still a double since October.

URME also has done
extremely well up 400%.

And UUL also on the
Vancouver exchange penny stock that is not anymore as it ran up
almost 300% in the last 2 weeks.

Now for some more usual watch
list additions.

CNH
tried like many and pulled back but stayed with green candles so may
try again over the $40 area.

JAV over $5.75

DYN above $18.41

PTSG looks attractive
over $1.55

RNO a miner over $3.50.
Getting a bit high above its 50-day EMA so maybe quick profits if it
goes.

COP has the space it may fill but no exact buy
point. Maybe over the $68.30 high it had Friday.

NYMX over the $6.70 ish
line but showing this as it looks like a momentum play for those who
like some higher risk movers to enter at your discretion.

EXEG has a clean break over $2.67 but note that this is a low volume
stock

CVBT another that may be good for the momentum
player but otherwise maybe best to wait for a break over the 50-day
EMA and see the next chart as to why.

Would sure hope the there were
no buy and holders that did...from over $7 down to 85 cents in a
year. This recent activity may be the start of a turn around but as
the 50-day has been its basic trend line lets wait for a good move
and close above it to make a better play.

VSE did close over its
50-day for the first time this year and on good volume. Its high
Friday was $18.50 so lets suggest a break over that as an entry.

MHGC has a break over
$18.70, This also is a low volume stock but high enough in price to
make a worthwhile profit even on a smaller position.

Two shots from Athens. A coffee/desert cafe early morning as I like the colors
and a night scene

That's a full lid for
today. Will see you all during the week.

Check the
current

Earnings Calendar
on all overnight holds.

Check the current
message board
also for other good stock candidates as there are several there right
now.

If you use StockTiger mail you can access your account using
simply
my.stocktiger.com

If you would like a free StockTiger.com email address that uses the
Google Gmail interface so you can check your mail
from anywhere, (you do not need a Gmail account)
send me (ST) a

personal
message from the
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Include your First and Last name and the name you want to use. Your address will
then be (your choice)@stocktiger.com

Best regards,

StockTiger.com

2007-02-28T20:59:00.000-05:00

Stock Tiger Stalking Stocks™

For Thursday March 1, 2007

Dow +51.91 at
12268.15, Nasdaq +8.27 at 2416.13, S&P
+7.73 at 1406.77

There has been so much talk and writing about the
Tuesday decline that I cannot add anything to useful about the
reasons that most are using to explain it. It was time and some
event started it in action is all, in my opinion.

If anyone was holding to many open long positions
than they may have some draw downs now to make up but we are still
in a longer term bull market. Right now until the correction looks
to be over you should remember that to preserve capital is to be
able to buy when the opportunity is good. Don't let any losses grow.
If you have any stocks with "broken" charts you can use any bounce
to exit or set a stop to not hold during any further decline.

Our picks yesterday had only one short trigger a
trade and today only a couple of small stocks a buy. In February
however we had over 100 trades and over 90% closed higher on the
same day so to have a few days of little action is like a rest. I
checked the web site traffic just now and today it is down about 30%
so it tells me that a lot of folks are staying away from the market
at the moment and that is not a bad idea as after a violent move it
can be quite hard to trust any moves so better to waif for a more
clear direction.

The Dow an interesting chart as the Fibonacci
projections gave a possible top exactly where the top happened. The
Dow broke the trend line, 50-day EMA and the horizontal support at
the same point at 12508 and fell to 12083 or 425 points from the
break so a short of the Dow futures contract doubled your money in a
day. Low risk entries come about many times a month.

So it fell to the horizontal support at the yellow
line but it is still above the 32% retrace and the 200-day EMA. I
have no idea how many days we could have more rally but I would
expect a retest and to drop to he 32% or green line or 200-day would
probably set the stage better for a bigger rally before a pullback
in the spring.

This weekly chart of the Dow shows how for
almost 2 years the Dow climbed in a channel in a mild slope up until
the break out in October. Tuesday it touched the top of this channel
so it could be support but a break would take it perhaps to the
50-week and that would not correspond to the chart above. I am
betting on the chart above to be more accurate. Note on this chart
the 9-week EMA and how the Dow stayed above it since last
July/August so that was also a clue to exit quick when it broke. In
time it will tag the lower Bollinger band that is now above the
50-week EMA and moving up. The Stochastics are now under 80 so we
hope it will move back over before the future decline.

The Nasdaq
stayed in this horizontal trading range for 3 months and it looked
like we may be in for an extended rally but now back in the same
range again.

The NYSE had such a lovely channel it is a shame to see it
broken. Looks like good support at the 32% retrace at about 8960 so
the next drop may take it there.

The Russell 2000 also broke its trend line and horizontal
support so unless it quickly gets above it will also most likely
take the path back to the 32% and strong support.

If your broker does not offer futures accounts you can use one of the ETFs to
hedge your positions or to just trade the indexes. DXD as an
example is an Ultra Short for the Dow so it will correspond to the Dow by about
200% in reverse. So if the Dow falls 4% this will go up 8%. Many people
yesterday when seeing the Dow dropping but did not want to sell all their stocks
so bought this as it helped to lessen any losses. If we get a bigger decline
this will break out but I do not expect it to last long if it does.

I looked at the Dow Sector charts - about 80 of them and the only
two nice ones were Forestry and Paper. Here it is. A large component
of it must be WY as its chart is almost identical. So this a
sector to take a look at.

Tonight we have not yet put any new stocks on the watch list but
here are just some charts of interest. So these are not like our
typical picks where we have a definite buy price but some to look at
for possibilities.

TTEC looks like it may be
on the edge of a diving board about to fall off but it may rally
from here so if watching during the day this could be played either
way depending on how it breaks.

ANN was pointed out as one to keep a watch on. It has had better up
volume than down so if it can get through this congestion and above the 200-day
it is likely a break will take it to the yellow line. A lot of people bought
between $39 and $40 and if it moves up over $36.50 they will likely wait to sell
until they can break even.

GLBL has a reverse head
and shoulder pattern. This pattern is so windy seen that it often
does not works as well s it did 20 years ago but technically a break
out could take it to about $18.

HURC is one we bought at about $33 in the
past. This may drop and fill the gap but it could also bounce here
or a fraction below at the 32% retrace. If not it could be shorted
to the 50% and support then maybe switch to a long.

RVSN was mentioned in the
chat room. It is not at a resistance break out buy area but would be
at about $23.00 - $23.10 but for aggressive traders it has nice high
volume up moves and low volume pullbacks.

APAC also from the chat
room broke out by a hair today on not high volume but a nice chart
and think this one will be going higher.

Solar has been pretty hot and
DSTI is not exactly a break out but think it will be a profit to
buy over this line in good volume. (by the way - our long term solar
GRSR is still working on getting the OTC listing and trying
to finalize some manufacturing facilities in the USA. The stock
pulled back again as some loose patience. I am not impatient with it
as I think the returns will be well worth the wait)

PRKR looks like a trade
over $11.00

During this questionable market time
there is no need to force trades. Opportunities will come so enjoy
any slow times now. Remember the

Tiger Store good time to
get some books on trading or charts and read.

NNRF Nucon-RF the USA registered company with its
real business and offices here in Moscow and manufacturing
facilities in Saint Petersburg, Russia. The stock has had very low
volume so the stock price has pulled back. This one is a very good
situation in Nuclear contamination clean up and production of parts
for nuclear power plants and many other activities. They will move
off the pinks sheets and last week filed 10-SB with the SEC. They
plan to in time move to the Amex so will need to have a share price
of at least $4.00 but with what they are dong this is within range.
On our site we have a little information and will expand on it in
March, it is here -

Nuncon-RF

There are over 135 stations of the Moscow Metro and this is one
of the newest one so quite plain but very clean lines and of course
much marble.

That's it for today -
tomorrow we find out if stockcharts gives us the little seal -
Hope so with all the votes you have given over 2500 of them -
about 1100 more than anyone else. See you on the weekend.

Check the
current

Earnings Calendar
on all overnight holds.

Check the current
message board
also for other good stock candidates as there are several there right
now.

If you use StockTiger mail you can access your account using
simply
my.stocktiger.com

Include your First and Last name and the name you want to use. Your address will
then be (your choice)@stocktiger.com

Best regards,

StockTiger.com

Stock Tiger Stalking Stocks Update For Monday February 26, 2007

2007-02-25T05:22:00.000-05:00

Stock Tiger Stalking Stocks™

For Monday February 26, 2007

Dow -38.54 at
12647.48, Nasdaq -9.84 at 2515.10, S&P
-5.19 at 1451.19

For the week, the S&P 500 fell
-0.3%, the
Dow -0.9%, the Nasdaq gained
+0.9%, and the Russell
2000 rallied +1.0%

Friday saw a continued pullback in the Dow blue chips and the
media says it is because of a weak financial sector on some worries
over the sub prime mortgage market. Of course I think the Dow needed
to test the bottom channel as shown in the morning videos for a
couple of days and the media just makes up things to put news
to a situation. If there was really some big concern the markets
would not have held up so well.

I noticed that briefing com says that the market is getting ahead
of itself as it knows (briefing) that earnings growth will slow this
year and there may be yet an interest rate hike from the Fed. If
only reason made the market. For a lot of the time though it
doesn't. As long as people want to buy and keep doing it stock
prices go up regardless of earnings as we can always have multiple
expansion when people are willing to pay a higher PE (price to
earnings) than they were in the past. That has yet to happen in this
cycle but it still may so stock prices could continue even if
earnings fall.

Here is the weekly view of the major indexes with the Russell
2000 leading the way.

And here the sector winners and
looser for the week.

It was a stand out week again at ST and even with a short week we
had super gains so did not pay so much attention to the news this
week. We had 29 stocks on our watch list hit their buy point and
only 2 of them closed lower than the buy point on the first day.

On Friday it was particularly nice as two of the stocks ran up
over 30%. MSI has been on our list since the start of the
month and when they have a long base they often can make a greater
break out and it did. Many in the chat room jumped in right at the
break and we hope that many more had buy stops in place.

NEOL has been on the list since Feb 16 and it also has a
nice long base and ran up 30%.

VLCM already had gained
$2 on Friday by the time our buy got hit but it still added $2.24
for the buy point. If you can't watch the market you need to buy
using buy stops and diversify.

Here is the full list of our
buys for the week (actually I see that ERES is not there but
it went over the buy by a 2 cents and closed lower by 4 cents so not
significant either way)

If you put 10% of your money
into each trade at the buy price and sold at the end of the
first day your portfolio would be up 12.7% this week. This table
shows a $100k portfolio using $10,000 on each trade but the
percentage gain is the same if you used $25k or $2k per traded. The
key is to buy as many as you can for diversification and so you do
not miss the moves.

Lets get the the index charts. The daily Dow
shows pretty much the standard pattern so far. after a rally up a
pullback to the trend line. It is better to figure it will repeat
itself until it doesn't. We have had a few Turn-around-Tuesdays
before and may again this week as it is the end of the month and
window dressing time. If the trend line does break the 50-day EMA is
not far below.

This is the larger view of
the 15-min chart we have been showing in the morning videos.
Depending on how drawn it almost tagged the lower channel line but a
retest would be better. Going long the futures close to the channel
bottom if stochastics is under 20 and then coming back over 20 is
low risk as if it fails you see it soon and can exit. The last time
this bounced it ran up 259 points total so even on the E-mini a gain
of $1,295 on tying up about $1,800 per contract.

The Dow Wilshire 5000 is
getting very close to its high so would not be surprised to see it
continue at least for the test.

The NYSE made little change as it
consolidates. It really has only a couple of days though I think
before it has to make a bigger move as now it looks sitting can
weaken it.

The Nasdaq still looks
good sitting on top of the break out line. The recent rally in the
chip stocks has helped but a bit too early to tell if that was only
some quick speculating or if it is the start of some accumulation.
This week may help clarify as we watch the Sox and the Nasdaq.

As the Nasdaq continues to gain
ground, if it does we will watch the trend line here as if the
Nasdaq continues to outpace the S&P 500 we may set up for a wider
rally ahead. When the lines on the chart go up the the Nasdaq is
outperforming the S&P.

The monthly of the Nasdaq 100
using the QQQQ shows a net gain for the week.

The NASI is above the
trend again and the MACD broke above its trend and zero line so may
continue a while.

We show the semiconductor sector
in three charts. First the SOX on a weekly version so you can
see that if this break gets legs it has a lot of room to run over
the coming weeks.

Here is a daily SOX showing more clearly the current
resistance.

The proxy SMH on the daily gapped and it is at resistance so
a short term pullback would be helpful to build some support before
a break out try.

The CRB commodities index had been in rally mode and closed
just under the 38% retrace so a break there will take it to the
break out line at about 322.

And Oil on the weekly
chart ran up a buck. Unless it breaks back above the $65 level I
think it has little effect at all on the rest of the markets so up
or down a couple of dollars means little.

Gold continues its climb this week and has a shot for the 2006 high but
most of the gold stocks are not acting like they believe this move.

We did put several gold stocks on our watch list last week and they
still look good but not a lot of excitement at least yet sector
wide. The Gold Bugs though (Basket of
Unhedged Gold Stocks) did break above the triangle so that is
bullish and if it breaks above the horizontal we expect to see some
more set ups in the gold sector.

Our favorite as the real judge of the market is the Value Line and the
monthly chart looks great still.

The weekly economic calendar from briefing com

Now some additions to the watch list for the coming
week. Several are similar patterns to ones that did well this week.

TXU made a nice run on Friday and it is near the gap at just
under $61. Volume was good so a intraday pullback to about $59 would
look attractive or wait for the break then at least fill the gap.

Biotech ARIA may take a while and we do not
like the couple of high volume days closing down but a valid set up
over $5.72

CELG another that moved
on Friday and now at resistance at $56.75 high from Friday.
Aggressive traders use the support at the 50-day and may enter at a
level under the break price.

FDRA not bad volume on
the up days but it is a low volume stock so caution.

DROOY on the other hand
near the same price has substantial volume. Cannot say if momentum
will drive Monday or if it needs to rest a while but here it is.

GCT had very good volume
on Friday and not much price movement and we like that. Has the
50-day at 10.40 but think another good volume move over $10.20 will
put it in play.

BEXP a nice set up and
similar to some recent successes. This is a buy over $6.32.

HOS tried and failed on
Friday. We do not especially like the gap below but for a shorter
term trade a buy on a second try over $28.10 looks playable. The
high Friday was $28.43 but we think it ok if watching the market to
enter early and then pay attention. If not watching it may be better
to wait for a break above $28.43.

CAI - you know the
pattern - and a buy above $48.07

DEPO pointed out in the
chat room Friday afternoon and some entered then. Now can wait for a
move above $4.16 or a pullback to not under $3.82

BMD was another one from
Friday and closed at the resistance so continuation may be the play.
Everyone sees the $3.60 target so it may pull players in but it
would need again good volume. This is not a type good to buy using a
buy stop as it has run two days and not close to support.

On cold winter days those who
live in such climates know that often the sky on such days is quite
blue. Today I was walking across the street from the Ministry of
Foreign Affairs and noticed the contrast of the sky to the building
so took a shot.

(For
an interesting effect scroll the page with the building off the
screen on the bottom and then scroll slowly up.)

That's a full lid - will
see you during the week.

Check the
current

Earnings Calendar
on all overnight holds.

Check the current
message board
also for other good stock candidates as there are several there right
now.

If you use StockTiger mail you can access your account using
simply
my.stocktiger.com

Include your First and Last name and the name you want to use. Your address will
then be (your choice)@stocktiger.com

Best regards,

StockTiger.com

width="1" height="1" border="0" alt="The Financial Ad Trader">

"hot stocks" commentary

2007-02-10T16:09:00.000-05:00

Stock Tiger Stalking Stocks™

For Monday February 12, 2007

Dow
-56.80 at 12580.83, Nasdaq -28.85 at
2459.82, S&P -10.25 at 1438.06

The market stubbed its toe a bit on Friday. In the
previous days while the Russell 2000 small caps as well as the mid
caps were in strong rally mode the Nasdaq could not even make it
back to 2500. The small caps were over bought and had not built any
supportive base so a pullback was in the cards. The Nasdaq as shown
on the 10-minute chart gapped up and that was the killer right out
of the gate. With no news expected on Friday and maybe as a media
talked of higher oil prices and interest rates up a tad -- well
whatever you pin it on - the folks with profit decided to take it.
The first 10-min bar was wiped out by the next one then after a
20-minute rest it dropped again. Note how after it broke the
50-period line it rallied back to it and actually a bit over. If you
trade futures (though this works also for stocks) you look for such
situations as low risk entries. To rally back to test a broken
moving average from below is a typical low risk short as if it
breaks out you cover quickly. Not being able to recapture the
50-period it dropped in 30 minutes to the 200-period and after a
brief rest there it started moving again. A nice day for those
short.

Some of the tech weakness is also attributed to MU - Micron saying it sees memory chip prices plunging
30-40% this quarter and so that makes one think maybe the
prospective earnings in tech are not so great. I have no idea if
that is at all true. It may be true for Micron and SanDisk and some
other memory makers but as consumer we enjoy lower prices for flash
memory for cameras and every thing else that uses it. With our
savings we may buy more tech so the lower prices in memory may help
earnings for others. (this may not at all be correct but it seems
the media quickly spins news to fit the day with not seeming to
think about it)

Also note the nice hammer
candle above at just before 3PM. After a downtrend this
typically signals a reversal. One of our chat room participants saw
the good risk/reward entry so bought futures contracts on the S&P
500 at that time for a quick trade. The one thing nice about
volatility is that more set ups for short term trades come up.

Some of the Fed officials in their words seemed to be saying not to
expect rate cuts any time soon and the 10-year note yield rose to
4.78%. Not really significant but another excuse to step aside and
take some profits in stocks. The idea is that if rates are up then
the financial sector will be hurt some and that is one sector that
the market is counting on this year.

Something I noticed on the Web - Merrill Lynch recently gave some
strong words to its clients:

"Merrill Lynch has warned of a global credit crunch as central banks
in Europe and Asia tighten monetary policy, advising clients to shun
risk and switch to safer assets over the forthcoming months.

Presenting its strategy for 2007, the US bank said the world boom is
clearly giving way to a slowdown that will shake up markets and
punish smaller equities, industrial metals, and lower-tier assets of
almost every kind.

Money can still be made as the cycle turns, chiefly by rotating into
short-term cash deposits and quality stocks with good dividend
yields such as AstraZeneca, Barratt Developments, Sweden's retailer
H&M, or Spain's Banco Popular Espanol - along with a few bars of
gold bullion.

The bank said 2007 would be the "year of the dividend", with fear
returning as the VIX and VDAX volatility indexes - widely used in
option trading - rise from record lows."

One rarely sees such a clearcut warnings from a major asset gatherer
. "

Their clock reads about 3:15 but nothing so far really points to
any major change in the market direction for several months. Maybe a
correction but no signs of anything worse.

One thing to note however is that even though we have had simply
stellar number of break out buys, in the last session particularly
some of them pulled back and did not hold their gains. CALP
as an example broke out early and had good volume but ended the day
up only 1 cent. We also though had ones like OPBL that was up
20% at the close so still a good day. We have enough picks to judge
the condition of the market pretty well and the action Friday is
only a caution that it does not hurt to take early profits on break
out buys if in doubt. Maybe the Friday sell off will be met with the
buying that is so common on all the pullbacks but it is also not
uncommon for a Monday to continue in the same direction as the
Friday before. That can though lead to a turn-around-Tuesday! We
will see the charts in a moment.

Here is the rundown for the week and the winners were Gold - and
the Amex while the Russell was about flat. The Amex actually has
been a very good performing market.

And these are the sectors with
the most gains or losses for the week.

The Dow had higher volume
on the sell off on Friday so maybe it will drop some more. It is at
the trend and you see support below that the 50-day EMA and
horizontal support. We had this happen at the start of November then
November 23 area then December 20 and first part January then again
late January and each time the bulls took it as a buying
opportunity. Maybe they will once again do the same but at some
point that will not work and may catch many by surprise.

We had said that the transportation index was
confirming the Dow move and it may be sill as it closed above
support and a typical buying point.

Meanwhile the utility sector still very strong but you may see the
shadow top on the Friday candle and the is often a sign of a
reversal.

The Nasdaq daily chart - would be unusual for it only to have
a one day red candle so I expect that support will not hold and the
50-day may be tested again.

Though the summation index is back above trend. This has a lag as
you know so maybe this forecasts a future move up for the Nasdaq. If
you know more about this then please write on the message board in
the general market topic.

The S&P 500 had been better than the Nasdaq and it pilled back to
support. This is still stronger and could hold right here but if not the target
is the 50-day.

This is a chart of the S&P 500 monthly a friend of mine likes
to use to point out the designation of the bull and bear markets
using the RSI on this monthly chart so when it is below the center
line we are in a bear. Right now the RSI shows an over bought
situation but note how long it stayed that way between 1995 and
1998. February is not over but see the red showing on the monthly
candle at this point - first time in a while. It is also now
quite far away from the 20-month EMA.

Here is the Russell 2000 and the pullback from Friday. We actually need
to see it test the 800 area to see if it is a valid break out. If it holds then
we may be off to the races. The small caps led the first two years of the rally
then stalled out from May until this month so they may take the lead again after
their 8 month rest.

The NYSE - did not draw
the support but you see it is horizontal about 23 points lower.

Oil rallied all the way
to the 50% retrace and the trend line so here is the test and to me
it looks like the move back up was too steep and needs to pullback
again. It may though do a little false break out to the 200-day at
$62.47

Gold is right at a
horizontal resistance. We did well with GSS this week and
some other gold stocks did pretty well but as a sector it still does
not look like ready for prime time to me.

Here is the XAU and the chart is very similar to the Gold
Bugs HUI. If this trend is broken with enthusiasm and
many gold stocks start shaping up my opinion can be quickly changed.
If gold stocks become a good buy again in the medium term then they
would run for weeks not days. Last year near this time there were
5-10 each day on buy lists and you could hold them many days or
weeks. Those are the kind of times when sector strength can carry
the stocks. I thick that will happen again but I do not expect it
yet.

The economic calendar for the week from briefing com

Here are some new additions for the watch list. There are again many
new subscribers so note that a main objective of ours for the
benefit of the users of the site is to make reliable consistent
gains and much of it in the short term. This means trading more
frequently and taking some smaller profits but it is quite a safe
way to invest as you are buying right next to support. If the
support then does not hold you exit the position. Last week we
mentioned that if you bought every trade at the buy point in the
last 4 months and sold all at the close of the day you bought you
would be up over 100%. If you sold at the high the first day up over
200%. Most however sell some and keep some and a glance at the
public charts at stock charts shows how a big % of those kept going
for quite a while and the ones that did not you were stopped out of
with a gain. Once you sell part of your position you need to decide
how much room you will give the stock to move but do not let a
winner turn into a looser as we have too many trades to get stuck in
one going the wrong way. If you cannot watch the stocks then you can
set stops after you buy and some brokers allow automatic trailing
stops that can be placed at the time of the buy order.

In the last 4-5 months we could buy really all the break out stocks
and do very well though the ones with high volume usually do much
better. If the market does pullback here then the better play would
be to trade the ones with the best volume or take smaller position
sizes on the "usual" volume trades. Yahoo shows the normal
volume average on all stocks and Quotetracker automatically computes
and gives you the volume run rate for each stock.

Only 17 days to go! so you can vote each day --

on the words

"Vote for It!"
and help us finish February on the top position so
we do not have to then vote any longer.

Here is another comment: The Amex stocks have
been winners as we mentioned above so later in the week I will
feature a day of three letter stocks. Today however we have
Nasdaq stocks. Instead of a scan to limit which stocks I would
view I started with about "R" and looked at all the Nasdaq
charts down to "V" and these I think worthy of the watch list.

RVSN may consolidate a bit then a try at $21.75.

SIRF
This one is strange and maybe does not belong here. 1000
islands...yikes. Sure would not be comfortable holding this over
night but if it breaks $32.20 will at least play it for the day.

OSTE This one if it
pulls back to the $5.80 area may be a good entry also. If it does
not pullback then I would wait for the break out. On all of
these buy as close to the break out as you can. Sometimes they break
out and pullback in the first couple of minutes and if you see
strong buying on the pullback it is a bullish sign.

SONO The lower level
the buy IMO - the top to point it out as could be some resistance.

SKYF Volume has not been strong in
here but it so far is a nice set up for a try over $29.00

UMBF Above $38.00
could then enter a new range.

VCLM A bit of a cup
and handle perhaps or head/shoulders looking for a move over $34.00.

ABBC I like the
long basing period. Maybe I better check --wait...ok. When I made
the chart I had not looked but right now it dawned on me that it may
be a buy out and that is why the price is so flat. It can often
happen that way and sure enough this bank in doing a merger. But the
chart is here already and looks nice so let's leave it on the watch
list a week at least as things may happen and we then would buy over
$19.70 if it got strong volume.

SPSS Nice gradual
move with 50-day support and now as a break out over $32.10.

TWTR Did not
realize that Tweeter had dropped so much. There has been some
renewed interest and we have had ones like ALTI and NTMD
with similar charts do well so will play over $1.80 then the 50-day
and note the resistance at $2. If it can break that it could make
some good gains.

Here are two short set ups.

We had some a week or two ago and they all held
support and these may also but I think it good to have at least a
couple good candidates and if the market weakens these may follow
along.

ULBI A
break down under $10 could take it to the $9 area at least.

VTAL Under $31.70
with a target of the 200-day.

VLGEA This one I had the
chart up before noticing the volume so use it as an example. When
you buy stocks look at the spread. The difference between the bid
and the ask. There are some stocks that for what ever reason have a
habit of wide - sometimes 3-5% spread so are hard to buy and sell.
The other thing to be aware of is the normal volume of a stock. I
really liked this chart and the high volume (relative) run up days.
Then I noted the 714 was not 714k shares traded on Friday but 714
shares. You could be stuck in this type with no buyers. So an
example.

VSAT Is one like we
mentioned how on Friday broke out but gave up most of the gains.
This is often a reversal signal but we will watch as it may try
again and if the market does reveres back up this week it may help.

CALP
from our list may also try again.

OK - to make up for the bank stock chart and having all Nasdaq stocks - I found
an Amex stock for the list. MEM is one we had before. It really needs and
increase in volume to get going. I think you an take a position on good volume
at $5.30 and it would then need to get over the 200-day at $5.43.

Amex market may be going up but there are few setups there now. We had two
recently.

QD looks pretty good though over $3.10

Here is another plain utility building. There are no raised
bricks but only painted to look that way and the doors are plain
wood. I think it is fun what they have done with all of these
buildings.

That's it for today - will
see during the week. Remember the morning Videos each
morning.

Check the
current

Earnings Calendar
on all overnight holds.

Check the current
message board
also for other good stock candidates as there are several there right
now.

If you use StockTiger mail you can access your account using
simply
my.stocktiger.com

Include your First and Last name and the name you want to use. Your address will
then be (your choice)@stocktiger.com

2007-02-07T18:37:00.002-05:00

Stock Tiger Stalking Stocks™

For Thursday February 8, 2007

Dow +0.56 at
12666.87, Nasdaq +19.01 at 2490.50, S&P
+2.02 at 1450.02

The indexes were all up
today but the rally in tech did not really do so much as it could
have then late in the day the Dow and S&P did not hold
there momentum and fell back to near flat.

With the CSCO
announcement last night of better then expected earnings increase of
40% and raising the next half year guidance the tech buyers could
have stepped up and at lest tested the NASDAQ's high but they
failed to do it.

Seems to me something more telling and that is the reversals
in our break outs today. We had about 10 going at one point but
many ended up about flat on the day. This is not at all usual
for us and shows that the strength and conviction of the buyers
is much weaker. Tuesday was a bit this way but not as much as
today. We had so many break outs - over 50 in 8 days so this was
a warning that we were a bit too hot. We have seen in the past
if we get several days of 7 and 8 break outs a day that they
have to cool down a while at least. I would actually welcome a
few boring days with not much breaking as that is a way to build
for future moves and let charts re set themselves. It could take
a few weeks actually but I do not think the market can rest that
long now. The way the next couple of days go will help to see
but right now to me there is a change going on. Maybe it is
because of our style of charts but I looked at
over 1,200
charts to pull up the ones today and that
is too many to find just 10 setups. They are getting hard to
find.

Looking at the daily Dow shows
nothing really but the late day reversal was not so positive.

For longer term though the confirmation with
the transportation index making new highs, pulling back then moving
again is positive.

Here you see that the Nasdaq
really was not all that strong as it could have been with the
CSCO news.

The top 100 market caps in the
Nasdaq had hit the top trend line recently so it was expected for
them to pull back a bit and at least to consolidate and you see the
stochastics falling.

The NYSE
added 8 points and still has the chance of moving up to our target
at the gray line.

And the Russell 2000 made a nice move to
a new high and we expect if it gets to about 835 it will pullback.

The first for our new watch list picks is MCD
may take a bit longer and will be on a break over $45

FRTS is a natural gas
company in California that may benefit from a pump job coming up -
get it? Anyway a play on good volume over $1.50

YHOO will their new
search engine help fill the gap? Over $30

SEAC like their
name Sea Change - would like the stock also over about $10.75
- $10.85 on increased volume

JUPM not sure but seemed
intriguing chart. Like a little bull flag over the 50-day EMA and
trend line. Would like to see $7.75 - .80 to buy.

XING can be a good mover
when it runs and this resistance is at $17.42 -.50

CHRW probably not a play
but look at it. they normally do about 1.2 million shares a day or
$50 million in trades. But after some better than expected earnings
it had a 15 million share day for $750 million trading hands that
day. Maybe it will be a play over the top but also likely it will
dip.

SOLUQ with many higher
priced stocks and not many low ones - here is one. I am not setting
a price as it is high risk and those who play these can decide. Only
pointing it out.

Normally one like XXIA
would not get my attention but I could see this triangle and how it
was at the 200-day and round number $10.00. If some nice volume
would come in and take it to maybe $10.15 or $10.20 my interest would
be sparked. Note the possible $10.30 resistance.

FDRY tried just before
the close on Wednesday. Hate it when that happens as it makes it
dicey for the next day. Much nicer usually if they start a run late
morning or maybe 2PM then they can get some traction. $15.50 still
have to go and then $15.60.

A week ago I showed a picture of
a stone building on a rolling lawn and did not write where it was
taken It was Vilnius the capital of
Lithuania. So here are two from that city in the early morning. It
is a very attractive city and here the streets of old town.

2007-02-07T18:37:00.001-05:00